Let me share a further post on The Trump presidential run. Remember to keep yourself in the loop!:
Liberal websites are having a field day with it, but what Republican nominee Donald Trump’s new campaign manager just said might have signaled something that’s been talked about in hushed tones before and could indicate a major turn in the election tide.
Polling data that shows Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead in a number of swing states is no big deal, says Kellyanne Conway, who’s been on the job for The Donald for only a week.
Conway, a lawyer and professional pollster who took a leadership role in the Trump campaign after Paul Manafort took his leave, told a British television interviewer that the campaign isn’t worried at all about being behind at this point. And if recent history of polling in important elections is any guide, she just might have a very good point.
Conway’s statement – which has been picked up and put down with evident glee by lefty sites like Mediaite, Mother Jones, and Talking Points Memo – came in response to an observation offered by the U.K.’s Channel 4 that noted Trump’s poll numbers are “looking pretty bad out there at the moment.”
“No,” Conway replied. “Just the cherry-picked poll numbers that are put out there by media outlets that are also bent on his destruction.”
Trump’s support in online polls, she said, is much stronger than polls done by traditional means.
“Donald Trump performs consistently better in online polling where a human being is not talking to another human being about what he or she may do in the election,” she said. “It’s because it’s become socially desirable, if you’re a college-educated person in the United States of America, to say that you’re against Donald Trump.”
That’s probably an understatement – particularly in the major cities where most media professionals live and work.
But most Americans don’t live in New York City or Los Angeles, and Conway said the campaign is counting on a corps of Trump supporters playing a major role when crunch time comes.
“The hidden Trump in this country is a very significant proposition,” she said.
When asked to put a number on the underground support, Conway declined.
“I can’t discuss it. It’s a project we’re doing internally,” she said. “I call it the undercover Trump voter, but it’s real.”
Now, realistically speaking, spokespeople for losing campaigns have been discounting polls ever since polls have been around.
“The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day” is up there with “resigning to spend time with my family” in the great, tacitly understood declarations of defeat in the conventional wisdom of American politics.
But Conway’s statement, as with so much else about the Trump campaign since it started, could be turning the generally accepted principles of conventional politics upside down.
In not one, not two, but three major elections in the past year, pre-election polls that have favored the liberal cause or candidate have been proven disastrously wrong when actual voters cast actual votes.
In what The New York Times called a “stunning turnabout” from polls just before the election, conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won in a landslide in the election last March.
In the United Kingdom last year, an election that was “too close to call” judging by the polls turned into a rout for the Conservative Party. Presciently, perhaps, CNN headlined one post-election story: “UK election polls: How did they get it so wrong and should U.S. take heed for 2016?”
(Perhaps amusingly, the answer to the question was basically, “can’t happen here.”)
And the biggest shocker of all was this year’s “Brexit” vote, when a solid majority of the British electorate chose to pull out of the European Union, despite pre-election polls that gave the “remain” side a comfortable lead just about everyone involved would hold until the votes were counted.
The point here is that Conway’s “undercover Trump voter” might be taken as a joke today — the “Saturday Night Live” sketch is probably being written even now — but not only have the polls been wrong before, they’ve been wrong consistently, indicating the liberal candidate or cause had the upper hand.
In a country where high-tech CEOs can lose their jobs for being opposed to gay marriage, there’s no question there are Trump supporters out there who are unwilling to say so publicly, even in the relative privacy of a political poll.
Whether it’s as large a number as Conway seems to think is the question.
But there’s no question at all that recent polls have been wrong – and decidedly so.
It’s only August, but those liberal websites might want to hold off on their happy-dance celebrations.
Please remember, don’t trust the media’s anti-Trump bells and whistles and never permit them to depress you. Make America Great Again!